Wednesday, January 09, 2013

Tony's 2013 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Tony Meneses makes his picks

You guyyyys, I’m freaking out… You see, tomorrow the Oscar nominations are going to be announced and though I would usually reserve my giddiness to a select few (who never actually really care), I thought I would take this opportunity to do A BLOG POST, and share with you my 2013 Oscar Predictions! Perhaps this could be annual tradition? (Well until I am booted outta here the year after next).

I figured this might be good post material since we all tell stories with actors and words, and movies have all that good stuff too. Plus who among us wouldn’t take a stab at writing a movie if given the opportunity, which yeah right if you’re one of those playwrights that only ever wants to write for the stage (that’s like saying you wouldn’t go out with that hot chick in high school if she ever deigned to look your way- or in my case, hot guy). Plus- PLUS- we all got stock in this horserace since one of our own Youngblood alum is likely going to hear her name called tomorrow! (Lucy Alibar, yeah!!)

Without further adieu!

Best Picture:
Zero Dark Thirty
Les Miserables
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Beasts of the Southern Wild

The last three are on the fringe of being nominated, but I’m using my women’s intuition and guessing they’ll make the (surprising) cut. And I’ll even go out on a- further- limb and say if Amour is nominated, I have a hunch it’ll win.

Best Actor:
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Denzel Washington, Flight
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour

I’m taking a big gamble on Trintignant, especially since this spot could easily go to Hugh Jackman in Les Miz or Bradley Cooper in Silver Linings, but something tells me Jackman is too showy, and trying too hard (his eyes practically scream ‘look at me, I’m so raw right now’) and Cooper just doesn’t seem to be there yet in his career (though he totally will be one day). Trintignant gives a powerfully quiet and
unsentimental performance as an old man taking care of his dying wife… Though we could all end up surprised and see Gigli star Ben Affleck in Argo.

Best Actress:
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

This is the category I have the most stock in, mostly because I will probably cry if both Riva and Wallis get nominated, making them the oldest and youngest Best Actress nominees ever, respectively. They both gave beautiful performances that unlike their more known possible fellow nominees, you really can’t imagine anyone else playing their roles.

Best Supporting Actress:
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Sally Field, Lincoln
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Amy Adams, The Master
Judi Dench, Skyfall

I think there’s going to be a strong push for Skyfall that’s going to land in several categories, including here. I mean, the Academy is doing a tribute to 50 years of Bond films this year, I doubt that’s a mere cosmic coincidence.

Best Supporting Actor:
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Alan Arkin, Argo
Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike

Some posit that Django could sneak in here with DiCaprio or Christoph Waltz, or that Robert De Niro will make the cut with Silver Linings, but my money’s on Bardem and McConaughey to elicit a good wtf moment when either one or both are announced.

Best Director:
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Ben Affleck, Argo
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Michael Haneke, Amour

I wager Amour is going to be the movie this year that’s going to sneak up in a lot of categories and everyone will wonder how they didn’t see it coming. Well everyone except me that is.

Best Original Screenplay:
Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
Michael Haneke, Amour
Rian Johnson, Looper

Paul Thomas Anderson could be here for The Master, but I have my doubts. The other screenplays have more support and fans. Fun fact: Playwright Martin McDonagh could sneak in here with Seven Psychopaths.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Tony Kushner, Lincoln
Chris Terrio, Argo
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Stephen Chbosky, The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Lucy Alibar & Behn Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Yeah, that’s right: it could be Kushner vs. one of Youngblood’s own.

So, those are my guesses. I’ll find out tomorrow when I’ll be one of few watching the nominees announced live at 8:30am EST!!

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